Cognitive Bias

Lessons

1. 01

   Your Mind Swaps the Question

   Catch the mind’s commonest trick, quietly answering an easier question than the one you asked, and learn the check that exposes it.

   11 steps
2. 02

   When to Trust a Quick Judgement

   Tell a trained quick judgement from a confident guess, and spot when someone has forged the cues your shortcuts rely on.

   9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
3. 03

   Confirmation Bias

   Test a belief with the case that could prove you wrong, not the one that is bound to agree, and give unwelcome evidence the same scrutiny as welcome news.

   10 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
4. 04

   The Availability Heuristic

   See why vivid stories feel common, and count through the base rate when the thing you’re worried about is rare.

   10 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
5. 05

   Survivorship Bias

   Ask who didn’t make it into the sample before you credit what the survivors have in common, from old freezers to fund league tables.

   9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
6. 06

   Regression to the Mean

   Expect extreme results to drift back on their own, and ask what would have happened anyway before believing that a fix worked.

   9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question, Survivorship Bias
7. 07

   The Anchoring Effect

   See how a first number pulls your estimate even when it’s plainly random, and make your own number from what things actually sold for.

   9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
8. 08

   The Sunk Cost Fallacy

   Keep money you can’t get back from steering a repair-or-replace choice, while still counting what it bought and what switching would cost.

   9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
9. 09

   Why What You Own Feels Worth More

   See why owning something can raise the price you’d sell it for, how much that depends on how you’re asked, and how to price it as if it weren’t yours.

   8 steps·Builds on The Sunk Cost Fallacy
10. 10

    Judging People From Too Little

    Catch one good or bad impression spreading to things you haven’t checked, and look for the situation before you blame someone’s character.

    11 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question
11. 11

    How Sure Should You Be?

    Start an estimate from how long jobs like yours usually take, match your confidence to your record, and see what the Dunning–Kruger studies really found.

    10 steps·Builds on When to Trust a Quick Judgement, The Availability Heuristic
12. 12

    Judge the Decision, Not the Result

    Separate a good decision from a good outcome, and stop hindsight rewriting what you knew at the time.

    9 steps·Builds on Your Mind Swaps the Question, How Sure Should You Be?
13. 13

    Arguing With the Best Version

    Answer the strongest form of the case against you, check you’ve understood it before you reply, and turn the same test on your own choices.

    11 steps·Builds on Confirmation Bias
14. 14

    The House You Fell For

    Work through one house purchase that needs everything in the course at once: the asking price, the money already spent, the survey, the timetable and how you judge it afterwards.

    12 steps·Builds on Confirmation Bias, The Availability Heuristic, The Anchoring Effect, The Sunk Cost Fallacy, Why What You Own Feels Worth More, Judging People From Too Little, How Sure Should You Be?, Judge the Decision, Not the Result